Is 27 really a dangerous age for famous musicians? Retrospective cohort study

BMJ. 2011 Dec 20;343:d7799
doi: 10.1136/bmj.d7799
(Published 20 December 2011)

Martin Wolkewitz, statistician [1], Arthur Allignol, statistician [1], Nicholas Graves, health economist [2], and Adrian G Barnett, statistician [2]

[1] Freiburg Center of Data Analysis and Modelling, University of Freiburg and Institute of Medical Biometry and Medical Informatics, University Medical Center, Freiburg, Germany
[2] Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation and School of Public Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4059, Australia

OBJECTIVE:

To test the "27 club" hypothesis that famous musicians are at an increased risk of death at age 27. Design Cohort study using survival analysis with age as a time dependent exposure. Comparison was primarily made within musicians, and secondarily relative to the general UK population.

SETTING:

The popular music scene from a UK perspective.

PARTICIPANTS:

Musicians (solo artists and band members) who had a number one album in the UK between 1956 and 2007 (n = 1046 musicians, with 71 deaths, 7%).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:

Risk of death by age of musician, accounting for time dependent study entry and the number of musicians at risk. Risk was estimated using a flexible spline which would allow a bump at age 27 to appear.

RESULTS:

We identified three deaths at age 27 amongst 522 musicians at risk, giving a rate of 0.57 deaths per 100 musician years. Similar death rates were observed at ages 25 (rate = 0.56) and 32 (0.54). There was no peak in risk around age 27, but the risk of death for famous musicians throughout their 20s and 30s was two to three times higher than the general UK population.

CONCLUSIONS:

The 27 club is unlikely to be a real phenomenon. Fame may increase the risk of death among musicians, but this risk is not limited to age 27.

http://www.bmj.com/content/343/bmj.d7799?view=long&pmid=22187325

Leaning to the Left Makes the Eiffel Tower Seem Smaller - Posture-Modulated Estimation

Psychological Science
December 2011 vol. 22 no. 12 1511-151
Version of Record - Dec 8, 2011

Anita Eerland, Tulio M. Guadalupe and Rolf A. Zwaan

Psychology Institute, Faculty of Social Sciences, Erasmus University Rotterdam, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Abstract

In two experiments, we investigated whether body posture influences people’s estimation of quantities. According to the mental-number-line theory, people mentally represent numbers along a line with smaller numbers on the left and larger numbers on the right. We hypothesized that surreptitiously making people lean to the right or to the left would affect their quantitative estimates. Participants answered estimation questions while standing on a Wii Balance Board. Posture was manipulated within subjects so that participants answered some questions while they leaned slightly to the left, some questions while they leaned slightly to the right, and some questions while they stood upright. Crucially, participants were not aware of this manipulation. Estimates were significantly smaller when participants leaned to the left than when they leaned to the right.

http://pss.sagepub.com/content/22/12/1511